Multicriteria decision-aid methods as negotiation support tools in multipersonal decisions

General premises and idea of the project
The majority of today’s decisions in the private and in the public sectors are complex decisions, in as much as they need to take into account a variety of different aspects and many actors. The utilization of decision-aid tools in these cases can significantly improve the decisional process in terms of efficiency, efficacy, and transparence. Because generally decisions are multipersonal, it will be necessary to set aside – conceptually and methodologically - the traditional single Decision-Maker (DM) approach of the multicriteria decision-aiding tools (MCDM, MCDA) in favour of a multiperson methodological framework. This project will therefore attempt to develop precisely such a methodological framework for the application of the existing multicriteria methods (traditionally developed in a single DM context) to the field of multipersonal decisions or negotiation situations.

Contents
To begin with, from a methodological point of view the project aims to study MCDM methods and to improve the applicant’s knowledge in MCDA. At the same time, the applicant will study the existing decision support systems (DSS) and the different techniques used in the evaluation phase to compare the results and to analyze and solve conflicts so as to reach the best compromise solution (sensitivity analysis, cognitive maps, etc.). Secondly, this project will analyze the theoretical background underlying the field of multipersonal decisions (group decisions, social decisions, etc.) and negotiation, and analyze the different support systems (Group DSS and Negotiation Support Systems). This should lead to the development of a methodological framework capable on integrating MCDM/A methods into the field of multipersonal decisions and, operationally, into GDSS and NSS. In the first part of the research, priority will be given to the analysis of real-world problems in the field of environmental economics and the management of natural resources. These are very important issues at all levels (local, regional and national) for Switzerland and other countries. Considered together, they provide the necessary problem-oriented and empirical context in which to build our advanced methodological framework. In the final phase of the project we will attempt a few web implementations (internet, intranet, etc.) of MCDM/A tools, important technologies for the development of user-friendly and useful decision-aiding tools.

Structure and phases of the project
The project is structured in three phases, each of which is in turn subdivided in steps.

Phase 1: analysis of real multi-personal problem and techniques for conflict resolution

Step 1.1: Analysis of real-world problems
Step 1.2: Analysis of applications of MCDM/A tools and techniques for conflict resolution (group techniques, etc., scenario screening, etc.)

Phase 2: study of methods and analysis of the decision context

First sub-phase

Step 2.1: methods and tools of MCDM
Step 2.2: techniques for analysis of results (sensitivity analysis, etc.)
Step 2.3: cognitive map and other support tools (VISA, COPE, etc.)

Second sub-phase

Step 2.4: group decision, multi-actors decision, multi-DM decisions
Step 2.5: conflict analysis, resolution and compromise seeking

Phase 3: methodological development and web implementation

First sub-phase: integration of MCDM/A as negotiation support instruments

Step 3.1: analysis existing tools
Step 3.2:study of possible links and integration paths
Step 3.3: development of a methodological approach/framework

Second sub-phase: web implementation of the methodological approach

Step 3.4: familiarization with web implementations
Step 3.5: analysis of possible implementations of the methodological framework and development

Results
The methodological results of this project should be of theoretical interest in the fields of decision sciences and multicriteria analysis. The practical results should be of interest for application within public agencies both in Switzerland and in other countries. They should also be interesting to other decision makers, such as firms, by helping them to adopt better decisions or decision processes and better compromise solutions.

Choice of the research institutes
The choice of the research institutes is strictly dependent on the main objectives of the project and justified by excellence in research activities of such institutes/persons. At the same time, priority has been granted to those places which provide researchers from all over the world with a forum for scientific discussion and scholarly exchange. The itinerant character of the project is mainly due to the search for a coherent, efficient and excellent research path. However, the possibility of enlarging the personal relations network and acquaintance with different work systems has also played a role.

Head of research and Institutes
Phase 1, expected to last six months, will be developed with the assistance of Professor Theodore Stewart, of the Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town (South Africa). In this phase the applicant will launch into the methodological analysis. He will at the same time keep in close touch with real-world situations so as to develop the necessary (field) background for analyzing methods and techniques of decision-aid, and for the development of the above-mentioned methodological framework.

Phase 2, expected to last 10 months) will be developed in collaboration with Dr. Valerie Belton, Senior lecturer at the Department of Management Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow (UK). The accent here will be mostly on methodology, in an attempt to build up knowledge of methods and techniques.

In phase 3, the applicant will work with Prof. Gregory Kersten, of the School of Business, Carleton University, Ottawa (Canada). The integration of DSS (MCDM/A) into NSS and more widely into systems of conflict resolution will be studied by comparing the systems developed by Prof. Kersten's group. As today it has become essential to support DSS/GDSS/NSS through new information technologies; this will be an addition focus of Phase 3.

Personal curriculum, training and development
The project is based on six years of intense research activities, and on several applications to real-world problems. For the applicant it represents a multifold extension, in methods and methodologies, in technologies and tools to be applied to real-world problems, and in the field of management of natural resources, especially water management, in which the applicant is particularly experienced.

Perspectives
This project is a perfect example of a field where theoretical research meets practical applications to real-world economic, environmental and social problems. The new EU norms for environmental quality assessment (ecolabeling, etc.), those for environmental impact evaluation for large infrastructure projects, and the new tendencies in the Swiss environmental and energetic policies are only three cases of the real need for better instruments and knowledge relating to decision sciences, to improve problem solving, conflict resolution and the development of a new way of managing the complexity of today’s local, regional and national human systems.