Programme de bourses "Echanges Universitaires"

Linkages between environmental changes, agriculture and infectious diseases in China

Summary

Changes in the global environment and in global agricultural systems induced by trends, such as economic development, population growth, urbanization, migration and worsening pollution are major causes for the persistence, emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. Global
climate change and climate variability, in part consequent to atmospheric pollution add new layers to this conglomerate of basic driving forces. All infections involve an agent (or pathogen) and
host(s), which already present in the environment. Environmental factors can either favour or hinder pathogens, vectors, host defenses, and habitat by changing conditions. The People's Republic of China is undergoing rapid environmental and agricultural changes. Consequences of
this change are manifesting in environmentally induced challenges such as global warming, reduced water run-offs in some rivers and flooding in others, extreme weather events (floods, snow and dust storms) and, most recently, the 2008 earth quake in Sichuan Province. The objectives of the project is (i) to review the linkages between environmental changes, agriculture and infectious diseases in China and (ii) to review the potential future effects of climate change on parasitic diseases in Aisa; (iii) to investigate the impact of climate change on two main disease, namely malaria and schistosomiasis in China. The environmental data will be obtained from the meteorological center in China and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario data center. Disease prevalence data will be provided by each provincial level and National Institute of Parasitic Diseases. The analysis will involve Geographical Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and Bayesian geostatistical modelling. The project will further our understanding about the contribution of different environmental risk factors to the transmission of infectious diseases in China.

Figure1: Smoothed map of China exhibiting the average January temperature difference between the 1960s and 1990s, including the new potential transmission area of S. japonicum. The black lines in the middle eastern part of China delineate the Jiangsu Province.

Figure 2: Potential transmission area of S. japonicum in Jiangsu province due to higher average January temperatures. Red lines indicate part of the eastern route of the planned South-North water transfer project. The blue arrows show the water flow direction.

Prepared by:

Guo-Jing Yang
Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases,
P.O. Box 214064
Meiyuan Yangxiang 117#
Wuxi, Jiangsu
P.R.China
Tel.: +86 510 85517721
Fax: +86 510 85510263
E-mail: guojingyang@hotmail.com

Penelope Vounatous & Juerg Utzinger
Department of Public Health and Epidemiology
Swiss Tropical Institute
P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland
Tel.: +41 61 294-8109/8129
Fax: +41 61 284-8105
E-mail: penelope.vounatous@unibas.ch; juerg.utzinger@unibas.ch